Massive errors in FBI’s Active Shooting Reports regarding cases where civilians stop attacks: Instead of 4.4%, the correct number is at least 34.4%. In 2021, it is at least 49.1%. Excluding gun-free zones, it averaged over 50%. [More]
I’m sure that’s just an honest oversight and there’s nothing intentional, right?
Right…?
[Via Jess]
Even if the correct number were 4.4%, that tracks roughly with how many citizens are licensed to carry (if necessary) and carry on a regular basis. A reasonable conclusion would be that if more people lawfully carried on a regular basis, more attacks would be stopped.
On the other hand, if John Lott is correct (and I have no doubt he is), I surmise it’s also possible the FBI chose to report the 4.4% number because it tracks with regular carriers, hoping people will overlook that:
a. 4.4% is the approximate probability that any particular individual is armed, and
b. mass-shooting attacks don’t happen against just one person.
In other words, in most of America, absent a “gun-free zone”, when you have a bunch of people around (as in a mass-shooting attack, pretty much by definition) an armed citizen or three becomes much more likely, and thus armed citizen responses to attacks would track closer to John Lott’s numbers than the FBI’s.
Besides which, even if the FBI were correct and the actual number is 4.4%, in the event of a violent attack, wouldn’t a reasonable person prefer a 4.4% chance of a quick ending by armed citizens over the 0% chance the anti-freedom lobby would mandate?