I’m on MoveOn.org’s email list, and this solicitation just came in:
Vice President Kamala Harris has taken the lead in national polls. But pollsters have a big warning. Presidential elections are not won at the national level; they’re won in a small number of battleground states that decide the Electoral College. And one survey showed Harris trailing Donald Trump across five battleground states. A pro-Harris Super PAC said their polling “is much less rosy” than public surveys. In a terrifying development, top election forecaster Nate Silver’s model now gives Trump a 55.8% chance of winning the Electoral College, while Harris has only a 44.0% chance of victory. And then there’s the fact that the Electoral College is biased in favor of Republicans and that polls underestimated Trump in both 2020 and 2016. While Harris’s candidacy has electrified the base, Harris remains the clear underdog in the race.
True, we can never tell what these people are claiming is real, and they are trying to fleece the bleaters for more money, but they also source things at the end:
1. “Kamala Harris Trails Donald Trump in 5 New Battleground Polls,” Newsweek, September 3, 2024
https://act.moveon.org/go/196597?t=6&akid=404513%2E41532114%2EmEoy2K2. “Democratic pollsters have a warning about Kamala Harris’ lead,” Politico, August 22, 2024
https://act.moveon.org/go/196598?t=8&akid=404513%2E41532114%2EmEoy2K3. “There’s no “normal” in this election,” Silver Bulletin, September 3, 2024
https://act.moveon.org/go/196592?t=10&akid=404513%2E41532114%2EmEoy2K4. “Democratic pollsters have a warning about Kamala Harris’ lead,” Politico, August 22, 2024
https://act.moveon.org/go/196598?t=12&akid=404513%2E41532114%2EmEoy2K5. “How Much Do Campaign Ads Matter?” Kellogg Insight, November 1, 2021
https://act.moveon.org/go/187493?t=14&akid=404513%2E41532114%2EmEoy2K